Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
